Predicting the future diabetes burden
In 2014, 21.9 million adults within the US were living with diagnosed diabetes but how many US adults will be diagnosed by 2060?
We know that the prevalence of diabetes is increasing; in the US alone the number of adults with diagnosed diabetes quadrupled from 5.5 million in 1980 to 21.9 million in 2014, but how will this be different in 40 years?
Diabetes is a lifelong condition that has large economic burdens on the individual with the disease, the national health care system and society as a whole. As a result, accurate forecasts of the future diabetes burden are essential for predicting the future needs of health care services, for projecting the future economic burden associated with the disease and for prioritizing public health programmes. However, estimates from previous studies have been substantially lower than the observed prevalence.
A new study used the Markov model to more accurately predict the number of US adults with diagnosed diabetes from 2020 to 2060. The estimates from this study are essential to predict health service needs and to plan future public health programmes aimed to reduce the future burden of diabetes.
By Francesca Dickens, BMC/Population Health Metrics